Raphael Warnock
U.S. Senator · Georgia
Without Black turnout, Warnock loses by a significant margin. Kelly Loeffler was ahead in early returns until Black precincts reported.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 93,551 votes
Georgia Senate Runoff
Black Vote Share
93%
93% of Black Georgia voters chose Warnock (exit polls)
Black Votes Est.
Approximately 800,000 Black
Approximately 800,000 Black Georgians voted in the runoff —
Stacey Abrams's voter registration work + Black church turnout operation delivered both Georgia Senate seats. Warnock's win flipped Senate control to Democrats, enabling the American Rescue Plan to pass.
✓ Delivered
•American Rescue Plan (co-voted)
•Inflation Reduction Act
•Bipartisan gun safety bill
✗ Failed
•George Floyd Justice in Policing Act
•Voting Rights Act restoration
Jon Ossoff
U.S. Senator · Georgia
Ossoff won by ~44,900 votes — and Black Atlanta provided far more than that margin. Without Black turnout, Perdue holds his Senate seat and Republicans keep the majority.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by ~44,900 votes
Georgia Senate Runoff
Black Vote Share
91%
91% of Black Georgia voters chose Ossoff (exit polls)
Black Votes Est.
Same Black turnout
Same Black turnout operation as Warnock — both races won tog
Won on the same night as Warnock. Together, they flipped Senate control. Ossoff's win was the narrower of the two — entirely dependent on Black voter turnout in Atlanta metro and the Black Belt.
✓ Delivered
•American Rescue Plan (co-voted)
•Inflation Reduction Act
•Juneteenth federal holiday
✗ Failed
•George Floyd Justice in Policing Act
•Voting rights restoration
Angela Alsobrooks
U.S. Senator · Maryland
Without PG County and Baltimore City Black turnout, Hogan wins. He led in virtually every pre-election poll with white voters.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by ~13 points over Larry Hogan
Maryland Senate Election
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~30% of Maryland's electorate. Prince Georg
Black Votes Est.
PG County alone
PG County alone — which is 65% Black — gave Alsobrooks a mas
Angela Alsobrooks became the first Black senator from Maryland in 2024, defeating Larry Hogan — a popular two-term governor who was considered a heavy favorite. Black voters in Prince George's County and Baltimore delivered the margin. She has been in office since January 2025 — too early for a full voting record assessment.
✓ Delivered
•Historic representation
John Fetterman
U.S. Senator · Pennsylvania
Fetterman's statewide margin relied on overwhelming Philadelphia numbers. Without Black Philadelphia voters, Pennsylvania very likely sends Oz to the Senate.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 4.9%
Pennsylvania Senate Election
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters in Philadelphia delivered an estimated 85–90% o
Black Votes Est.
Philadelphia, which is
Philadelphia, which is ~41% Black, provided Fetterman with h
Black Philadelphians helped send Fetterman to the Senate in 2022, flipping a Republican-held seat and giving Democrats their first outright Senate majority since 2015. By 2025, Fetterman had become one of the most pro-Trump Democrats in the Senate — voting with Republicans on immigration, meeting with Trump privately, and breaking with his own party on key votes. Democrats are now weighing primary challenges against him.
✓ Delivered
•Inflation Reduction Act
•Bipartisan gun safety bill
✗ Failed
•Immigration hardline votes
•Broke with Democrats repeatedly
•Gaza/foreign policy
•Police reform
Cory Booker
U.S. Senator · New Jersey
Without Black NJ voters, Booker's margins shrink dramatically in any competitive race. In 2013 special election, he won by only 10 points — Black turnout was decisive.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2020 by 16 points
New Jersey Senate (multiple wins)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~15% of NJ electorate; Booker wins 90%+ of
Black Votes Est.
Newark (majority Black)
Newark (majority Black) is his political home. Without Black
Booker positioned himself as a Black progressive champion — but his record tells a different story. He's taken massive donations from pharmaceutical and Wall Street interests. He voted against importing cheaper prescription drugs from Canada. He ran for president in 2020 and burned millions in donor money while Newark's poverty rate barely moved. He has the language of Black liberation without the legislative record to match.
✓ Delivered
•Criminal justice reform (First Step Act)
•George Floyd Act support
•Voting rights support
✗ Failed
•Pharma drug pricing vote
•Wall Street donations
•Newark poverty unchanged
Gretchen Whitmer
Governor of Michigan / Potential 2028 Presidential Candidate · Michigan
Michigan is a purple state. Without Black Detroit turnout, Whitmer loses or barely wins. She has never won a close election without Black voters carrying her.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2022 by 10.5 points
Michigan Governor (2018, 2022)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~14% of Michigan electorate. Detroit (major
Black Votes Est.
Without Wayne County
Without Wayne County (Detroit), Whitmer's statewide margin s
Whitmer is a 2028 presidential frontrunner who owes her two gubernatorial wins to Black Detroit. Her record on Black-specific issues is thin — she's expanded Medicaid and invested in roads, but Detroit's schools remain failing, police accountability legislation stalled, and her presidential ambitions seem disconnected from the communities that made her possible.
✓ Delivered
•Medicaid expansion defense
•Minimum wage increase
✗ Failed
•Detroit schools — no major action
•Police accountability — stalled
•Flint accountability
Wes Moore
Governor of Maryland · Maryland
Maryland is reliably Democratic but in a closer race or primary challenge, Black voters in Baltimore and PG County are decisive.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 32 points
Maryland Governor Election 2022
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~30% of Maryland's electorate. Moore won 90
Black Votes Est.
As a Black
As a Black candidate running against a weak Republican field
Wes Moore is the only Black governor currently serving in America. He won Maryland in 2022 with massive Black voter support and has positioned himself as a rising star in Democratic politics — potentially a 2028 or 2032 presidential contender. His first two years have been promising but the verdict on delivery for Black Marylanders is still being written.
✓ Delivered
•Child poverty — concrete action
•Criminal justice reform
•Economic investment in Baltimore
✗ Failed
•Record still being written
Gavin Newsom
Governor of California / 2028 Presidential Frontrunner · California
Newsom's CA wins are comfortable without Black voters — but any presidential primary run dies without Black South Carolina and Georgia voters. Biden proved Black voters are kingmakers in Democratic primaries.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2022 by 19 points
California Governor (2018, 2022) + Survived Recall 2021
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~6% of CA electorate but in national Democr
Black Votes Est.
In 2021 recall
In 2021 recall election, Black turnout in LA County was crit
Newsom is widely expected to run for president in 2028 and he will need Black voters to win the Democratic primary. His California record is complicated: progressive rhetoric on criminal justice, but San Francisco's Black population dropped 50% under his watch as mayor and Governor. He's pro-reparations in theory but his delivery is thin.
✓ Delivered
•California Reparations Task Force
•Criminal justice reform
•Expanded social safety net
✗ Failed
•No reparations payments yet
•SF Black population collapse
•Homelessness — billion spent, problem grew
🗳️ Next election: 2028 Presidential Primary · If he runs for president, Black voters in SC, GA, MI, PA are essential
View full profile + score →
Josh Shapiro
Governor of Pennsylvania / 2028 Presidential Contender · Pennsylvania
Without Black Philadelphia, Pennsylvania governor's race is too close to call. PA has decided multiple national elections — Black Philly is why Democrats hold it.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 14.8 points over Doug Mastriano
Pennsylvania Governor Election 2022
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~11% of PA electorate. Philadelphia (44% Bl
Black Votes Est.
Philadelphia gave Shapiro
Philadelphia gave Shapiro his margin. Without the city's Bla
Shapiro is term-limited after 2026 and widely expected to run for president in 2028. He built his political career in large part on Philadelphia Black voter support. As governor, he's been moderate-to-progressive but his commitment to Black-specific policy remains untested at a national level. He was considered as Harris's VP pick in 2024 — Black voters will be his biggest primary challenge to win over.
✓ Delivered
•Election integrity defense
•Economic opportunity investments
✗ Failed
•School funding — inequity persists
•Police reform — no major action
🗳️ Next election: 2028 Presidential Primary (term-limited as PA Governor in 2026) · Presidential — needs Black Philadelphia and Pittsburgh voters
View full profile + score →
Tim Walz
Governor of Minnesota / Former 2024 VP Candidate · Minnesota
Walz won comfortably in 2018, but his 2024 VP nomination depended on his Minnesota track record — and that record was built on Black Twin Cities turnout. In closer future races, Black Minneapolis is the margin.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2018 by 11.4 points
Minnesota Governor (2018, 2022)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~7% of MN electorate. Minneapolis-St. Paul
Black Votes Est.
Black Twin Cities
Black Twin Cities provided a decisive bloc in his winning co
Tim Walz won his first governor's race by 11 points — the largest DFL margin since 1986. Black Twin Cities voters were a key part of his coalition. He was then selected as Kamala Harris's VP pick in 2024. His record on Black issues in Minnesota is mixed: he signed police accountability legislation after George Floyd's murder in his state, but Minneapolis still has some of the worst racial wealth gaps in the nation and his 6 years as governor have not meaningfully closed them.
✓ Delivered
•Police accountability legislation
•Free school meals for all
✗ Failed
•Racial wealth gap — worst in nation
•Minneapolis schools remain segregated
🗳️ Next election: 2026 Governor re-election · Minnesota Governor — Black Minneapolis-St. Paul voters are decisive
View full profile + score →
Andy Beshear
Governor of Kentucky / 2028 Presidential Contender · Kentucky
Black Louisville voters ARE the reason Andy Beshear is governor of Kentucky. Full stop. Without them, he loses by 30,000 votes in a state Trump won by 30 points.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2019 by only 5,136 votes over incumbent Matt Bevin
Kentucky Governor Election 2019
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~8% of Kentucky's electorate. Louisville (m
Black Votes Est.
Jefferson County (Louisville)
Jefferson County (Louisville) gave Beshear ~35,000 net votes
Andy Beshear's victory is one of the clearest examples of Black voter leverage in American politics. He won Kentucky — one of the reddest states in the country — by 5,136 votes. Black Louisville provided his entire margin and then some. He is now a leading 2028 presidential contender. The question is whether he'll show up for Black voters the way Black voters showed up for him.
✓ Delivered
•COVID relief and healthcare access
•Criminal justice reform
✗ Failed
•Systemic poverty in Louisville's Black community unchanged
•Police accountability — limited action
Tony Evers
Governor of Wisconsin · Wisconsin
Without Black Milwaukee, Wisconsin stays Republican in 2018 and Scott Walker wins. Wisconsin decides presidential elections — Black Milwaukee is why Democrats can compete.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2018 by 29,291 votes. Won 2022 by 90,563 votes.
Wisconsin Governor (2018, 2022)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~6% of WI electorate. Milwaukee (40% Black)
Black Votes Est.
His 2018 margin
His 2018 margin was 29,291 votes. Milwaukee County provided
Tony Evers is governor of Wisconsin because Black Milwaukee showed up. Wisconsin is a presidential battleground — it decided 2016 (Trump won by 22K), and Black turnout in Milwaukee is the difference between a red and blue state. Evers has been a reliable obstacle to Republican gerrymandering and voter suppression, but Milwaukee's Black community still has some of the worst outcomes for Black Americans of any major city.
✓ Delivered
•Vetoed Republican voter suppression bills
•Expanded Medicaid access
✗ Failed
•Milwaukee outcomes remain worst in nation
•Police accountability stalled
🗳️ Next election: November 2026 · Wisconsin Governor re-election — Black Milwaukee is decisive in a purple state
View full profile + score →
Kathy Hochul
Governor of New York · New York
Without Black New York City voters, Hochul loses the 2022 governor's race to Lee Zeldin — a Trump ally who would have turned New York's criminal justice system hard right.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2022 by only 6 points over Lee Zeldin
New York Governor (assumed 2021, elected 2022)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~14% of NY electorate. NYC Black voters in
Black Votes Est.
Her 2022 margin
Her 2022 margin was ~350,000 votes statewide. Black NYC alon
Kathy Hochul is governor of New York — the most powerful Democratic governorship in the country — because Black NYC voters saved her in 2022. Her race against Lee Zeldin was shockingly close. She has been a reliable Democrat on abortion and gun control, but on criminal justice reform and investment in Black communities she has been underwhelming. The Rikers Island crisis, failing Bronx schools, and NYPD accountability remain unresolved.
✓ Delivered
•Defended abortion rights
•Gun safety legislation
✗ Failed
•Rikers Island crisis unresolved
•Criminal justice rollbacks
Chuck Schumer
U.S. Senator / Senate Minority Leader · New York
Without Black New York, Schumer cannot guarantee his Senate seat and would not be Senate Minority Leader. His political identity is built on New York's diverse coalition.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2022 by 12 points
New York Senate (multiple terms since 1998)
Black Vote Share
Wins
Wins 90%+ of Black New York vote every cycle. Black Brooklyn
Black Votes Est.
Without Black NYC
Without Black NYC voters, Schumer is a vulnerable Senator in
Chuck Schumer has represented Black Brooklyn voters for nearly 40 years and leads Senate Democrats. His record on Black priorities is deeply disappointing. He let George Floyd Act die without forcing a vote. He let voting rights die without forcing a vote. He is the most powerful Democrat in the Senate and he used that power to protect incumbents, avoid hard fights, and deliver for Wall Street donors. Black New York has given him everything. He has given Black America very little.
✓ Delivered
•American Rescue Plan (floor leader)
•Inflation Reduction Act
✗ Failed
•George Floyd Act — never forced a vote
•Voting Rights Act — never forced a vote
•Reparations — no action
Mark Kelly
U.S. Senator — Arizona · Arizona
Arizona has been decided by thin margins. Black Phoenix turnout is part of the coalition that keeps AZ competitive — without it, Democrats cannot win statewide.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2022 full term by 5.2 points
Arizona Senate (2020 special, 2022 full term)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~5% of AZ electorate but concentrated in Ph
Black Votes Est.
Phoenix Black voters
Phoenix Black voters gave Kelly 70%+ support in Maricopa Cou
Mark Kelly won Arizona twice in a state that had been reliably Republican. Black Phoenix voters are part of the coalition that made it possible. His record is moderate — he votes with Democrats on most issues but has positioned himself as a centrist that sometimes prioritizes Arizona's independent voters over progressive priorities.
✓ Delivered
•Inflation Reduction Act
•Gun safety legislation
✗ Failed
•Voting rights — did not push hard
•Immigration — centrist positions
Tammy Baldwin
U.S. Senator — Wisconsin · Wisconsin
Without Black Milwaukee voters, Tammy Baldwin loses her 2024 Senate race to a Republican banker. Wisconsin loses its only Democratic Senate seat.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by only 28,000 votes over Eric Hovde
Wisconsin Senate (2012, 2018, 2024)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~6% of WI electorate. Milwaukee Black voter
Black Votes Est.
Baldwin won 2024
Baldwin won 2024 by 28,000 votes statewide. Black Milwaukee
Tammy Baldwin has held Wisconsin's Senate seat for 12 years, each time relying on Black Milwaukee to deliver her margin. She has one of the more progressive voting records in the Senate and has fought for healthcare and workers' rights. But Black Milwaukee still has the worst outcomes for Black Americans of any major US city, and Baldwin — as Wisconsin's senior senator — has not made it a defining issue.
✓ Delivered
•Healthcare champion
•Voting rights support
✗ Failed
•Milwaukee outcomes — worst in nation
Gary Peters
U.S. Senator — Michigan · Michigan
Without Black Detroit, Gary Peters loses 2020 to John James — a Black Republican who was one of Trump's top Senate picks. Michigan loses a critical Democratic Senate seat.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2020 by 1.5 points
Michigan Senate (2014, 2020)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~14% of MI electorate. Detroit (majority Bl
Black Votes Est.
Peters won 2020
Peters won 2020 by 87,000 votes. Wayne County (Detroit) gave
Gary Peters barely held his Michigan Senate seat in 2020 — Black Detroit saved him from losing to John James. He is up for re-election in 2026 in a state that will be pivotal. His record is reliable but unremarkable — he votes correctly on most issues but has not been a champion for Black Michigan's specific concerns.
✓ Delivered
•American Rescue Plan
•Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
✗ Failed
•George Floyd Act — no floor vote
•Detroit water and infrastructure — slow progress
Catherine Cortez Masto
U.S. Senator — Nevada · Nevada
Without Black Clark County voters, Catherine Cortez Masto loses her Senate seat in 2022. The Senate majority in 2022 was decided in part by Black Las Vegas.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2022 by only 7,928 votes over Adam Laxalt
Nevada Senate (2016, 2022)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~10% of NV electorate. Las Vegas Black vote
Black Votes Est.
She won by
She won by 7,928 votes. Clark County Black voters provided t
Catherine Cortez Masto held the Nevada Senate seat by 7,928 votes in 2022 — one of the closest Senate races in the country. Black Las Vegas voters saved her. As the first Latina elected to the Senate, she made history but has not been a standout champion for Black Nevada specifically.
✓ Delivered
•American Rescue Plan
•Voting rights support
✗ Failed
•Police accountability — limited action
Steve Cohen
U.S. Representative — Tennessee's 9th District (Memphis) · Tennessee
Steve Cohen does not win a single election in TN-09 without Black Memphis voters. He is the clearest example in Congress of a white politician fully dependent on Black voter loyalty.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Wins with 70%+ every cycle
Tennessee's 9th Congressional District (multiple terms)
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~60% of TN-09. Cohen, a white Jewish Democr
Black Votes Est.
Cohen exists as
Cohen exists as a congressman entirely because Black Memphis
Steve Cohen has represented majority-Black Memphis for nearly 20 years — and he is white. Black Memphis voters have chosen him over Black challengers in multiple primaries. His voting record is reliably progressive but his district still has some of the highest poverty and worst health outcomes of any congressional district. The question Black Memphis must ask: is 20 years of progressive voting enough when the community hasn't moved?
✓ Delivered
•Progressive voting record
•George Floyd Act support
✗ Failed
•Memphis poverty unchanged
•Memphis health outcomes — worst in nation
Abigail Spanberger
Governor of Virginia (elected November 2025) · Virginia
Without Black Virginia turnout in Richmond and Northern Virginia, Spanberger's coalition collapses. Virginia is a 50/50 state without Black voters.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2025 VA Governor race
Virginia Governor Election — November 2025
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~20% of Virginia's electorate. Richmond and
Black Votes Est.
Virginia governor races
Virginia governor races are decided by turnout in the DC sub
Abigail Spanberger was elected Virginia Governor in November 2025 with strong Black voter support. She is too new in the role for a full assessment but Black Virginia delivered for her. Watch closely whether she delivers back — particularly on criminal justice, school equity in majority-Black Richmond, and economic investment in Black communities.
✓ Delivered
•Just elected — record being established
Elissa Slotkin
U.S. Senator — Michigan · Michigan
Without Black Detroit, Michigan sends a Republican to the Senate. Slotkin holds her seat entirely because Black Detroit showed up for her.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 1.6 points
Michigan Senate Election — November 2024
Black Vote Share
Black
Black voters are ~14% of MI electorate. Detroit gave Slotkin
Black Votes Est.
Slotkin won by
Slotkin won by 100,000 votes statewide. Wayne County (Detroi
Elissa Slotkin won Michigan's open Senate seat in 2024 by 1.6 points — Black Detroit delivered her margin. She is new to the Senate and her record on Black-specific issues is unestablished. She represents the Detroit area's suburbs and has a moderate-to-progressive record. Black Detroit voters are watching.
✓ Delivered
•Just elected — record being built
Mikie Sherrill
Governor of New Jersey (elected November 2025) · New Jersey
Without Black NJ voters in Newark and Trenton, the NJ governor race becomes a toss-up or Republican win. Sherrill's coalition depends on Black urban turnout.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by ~14 points
New Jersey Governor Election — November 2025
Black Vote Share
NJ
NJ is ~15% Black. Newark, Camden, and Trenton Black voters a
Black Votes Est.
New Jersey has
New Jersey has been competitive at the governor level. Black
Mikie Sherrill was elected New Jersey Governor in November 2025. She previously represented NJ-11 in Congress with a moderate record. Black Newark and Trenton voters were part of the coalition that elected her. Too early to assess her delivery for Black New Jersey — but Black NJ should be watching.
✓ Delivered
•Just elected — record being established
Greg Landsman
U.S. Representative — Ohio's 1st District (Cincinnati) · Ohio
Without Black Cincinnati turning out, Landsman's margin evaporates. Cincinnati's Black community on the west side and in neighborhoods like Avondale and Bond Hill are the foundation of his Democratic coalition.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 35,923 votes
Ohio's 1st Congressional District
Black Vote Share
Hamilton
Hamilton County (Cincinnati) is approximately 26% Black. Bla
Black Votes Est.
~26% Black VAP
~26% Black VAP × 391,909 total votes × 65% Black turnout rat
Greg Landsman flipped Ohio's 1st district for Democrats in 2022 and held it in 2024. Black Cincinnati voters are a cornerstone of his coalition — without their turnout, his margin disappears. He serves on the Energy and Commerce Committee. His record on Black-specific issues is still developing, but he represents a district where the Black community of Cincinnati has long been underserved.
✓ Delivered
•American Rescue Plan support
•Inflation Reduction Act
✗ Failed
•Record still being built
Marcy Kaptur
U.S. Representative — Ohio's 9th District (Toledo) · Ohio
Without Black Toledo voters, Kaptur loses decisively. She won by 2,382 votes — Black Toledo delivers tens of thousands of net votes. This is one of the clearest cases of Black vote leverage in Congress.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by only 2,382 votes
Ohio's 9th Congressional District
Black Vote Share
Lucas
Lucas County (Toledo) is approximately 27% Black. Toledo's B
Black Votes Est.
~20% Black VAP
~20% Black VAP in district × 375,195 votes × 85% D preferenc
Marcy Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, representing Toledo since 1983. She won her 2024 race by just 2,382 votes — her narrowest victory ever. Black Toledo provided tens of thousands of net votes, saving her seat. Her record is reliably Democratic but she has not made Black economic advancement in Toledo a signature issue. Toledo's Black community still faces deep poverty and unemployment.
✓ Delivered
•Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
•American Rescue Plan
•Inflation Reduction Act
✗ Failed
•Toledo Black poverty unchanged after 40 years
•Police accountability — limited action
Shri Thanedar
U.S. Representative — Michigan's 13th District (Detroit) · Michigan
Shri Thanedar does not win a single election in MI-13 without Black Detroit voters. He won the Democratic primary against Black challengers specifically because Black voters chose him. He literally exists in Congress because of Black Detroit.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 with 68.6% of the vote
Michigan's 13th Congressional District
Black Vote Share
MI-13
MI-13 is approximately 55% Black voting age population — cov
Black Votes Est.
~55% Black VAP
~55% Black VAP × 321,648 total votes × 85% D preference = ~1
Shri Thanedar is an Indian-American entrepreneur representing one of the most Black districts in the country. Black Detroit voters chose him over Black candidates in Democratic primaries. His record has been controversial — he has clashed with progressive Detroit advocates and his focus has sometimes seemed disconnected from his majority-Black constituency's priorities. Black Detroit should be demanding far more from the representative they put in power.
✓ Delivered
•Progressive voting record
•Impeachment articles against Trump
✗ Failed
•Disconnect from Black Detroit priorities
•Detroit investment and economic development
Suhas Subramanyam
U.S. Representative — Virginia's 10th District (Northern Virginia) · Virginia
Without Black Prince William County and Loudoun County voters, Subramanyam loses VA-10 to the Republican. Virginia's 10th is a purple district — Black voters are the decisive factor.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 18,788 votes
Virginia's 10th Congressional District
Black Vote Share
VA-10
VA-10 covers Prince William County (~16% Black) and Loudoun
Black Votes Est.
~13% Black VAP
~13% Black VAP × 413,012 total votes × 85% D preference = ~4
Suhas Subramanyam won Virginia's 10th district in 2024 — an open seat race in Northern Virginia's competitive suburbs. His margin of 18,788 votes was delivered in large part by Black voters in Prince William County. He is new to Congress and his record on Black-specific issues is unestablished. Black Northern Virginia voters elected him and should be watching closely whether he delivers.
✓ Delivered
•Just elected — record being established
Don Davis
U.S. Representative — North Carolina's 1st District · North Carolina
Without Black NC-01 voters, Don Davis loses his seat. This is a majority-Black district that was created specifically to provide Black representation.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by ~5 points
North Carolina's 1st Congressional District
Black Vote Share
NC-01
NC-01 is majority Black. Black voters in Wilson, Rocky Mount
Black Votes Est.
NC-01 is a
NC-01 is a VRA-protected majority-minority district. Black v
Don Davis represents one of the most heavily Black districts in North Carolina — and votes with Republicans often enough to earn an F on the issues his constituents care about most. He has voted against progressive legislation, accepted donations from interests opposed to Black economic advancement, and refused to take a position on reparations while representing a district where many Black residents are descendants of enslaved people. Black NC-01 voters should be asking harder questions.
✓ Delivered
•Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
✗ Failed
•Reparations — will not support
•Votes with Republicans on key issues
Laura Gillen
U.S. Representative — New York's 4th District (Nassau County) · New York
In a race decided by 8,625 votes, the district's Black electorate (a bloc larger than the margin) is the difference between winning and losing. Black turnout gives leverage here.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 8,625 votes
New York's 4th Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
NY-04
NY-04 is 16.3% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~61,119 (374,961 total votes × 1
Laura Gillen flipped NY-04 in 2024. We are adding her here because the district is 16.3% Black and the margin was only 8,625 votes — meaning Black turnout is a decisive lever. Score pending while we build out a verified issue-by-issue record.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Adam Gray
U.S. Representative — California's 13th District (Central Valley) · California
This was decided by 187 votes. Even a small Black electorate can be larger than the margin — meaning Black turnout can decide who represents CA-13.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 187 votes
California's 13th Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
CA-13
CA-13 is 2.8% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~5,906 (210,921 total votes × 2.
Adam Gray won the closest House race of 2024 — by just 187 votes. The district is only 2.8% Black, but that still represents more voters than the margin. Score pending while we build a verified record.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Josh Riley
U.S. Representative — New York's 19th District (Hudson Valley / Southern Tier) · New York
In a race decided by 8,357 votes, the district's Black electorate is larger than the margin — meaning Black turnout is a real lever in NY-19.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 8,357 votes
New York's 19th Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
NY-19
NY-19 is 4.3% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~16,208 (376,937 total votes × 4
Josh Riley flipped NY-19 in 2024. The margin was 8,357 votes, and the district is 4.3% Black — a bloc larger than the margin. Score pending while we build a verified record.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Derek Tran
U.S. Representative — California's 45th District (Orange County) · California
This was decided by just 653 votes. Even with a small Black electorate, the Black community here is larger than the margin — meaning Black turnout can decide who represents CA-45.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 653 votes
California's 45th Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
CA-45
CA-45 is 2.1% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~6,633 (315,875 total votes × 2.
Derek Tran flipped CA-45 in one of the closest House races in the country. The margin (653) is smaller than the district's estimated Black electorate. Score pending while we build a verified record.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
George Whitesides
U.S. Representative — California's 27th District (North L.A. County) · California
In a race decided by 7,990 votes, the district's Black electorate is larger than the margin — meaning Black turnout is leverage in CA-27.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 7,990 votes
California's 27th Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
CA-27
CA-27 is 9.8% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~29,409 (300,090 total votes × 9
George Whitesides flipped CA-27 in 2024. The district is nearly 10% Black and the margin was under 8,000 votes — a scenario where Black turnout can decide who holds the seat. Score pending.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Eugene Vindman
U.S. Representative — Virginia's 7th District (Fredericksburg / Prince William) · Virginia
This is a competitive seat where the Black electorate is far larger than the winning margin — meaning Black turnout is a decisive lever in VA-07.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 10,489 votes
Virginia's 7th Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
VA-07
VA-07 is 20.4% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~81,049 (397,299 total votes × 2
Eugene Vindman won VA-07 in 2024 by 10,489 votes. With a district that is 20.4% Black, Black turnout is a major lever for accountability here. Score pending.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Susie Lee
U.S. Representative — Nevada's 3rd District (Las Vegas suburbs) · Nevada
In a competitive Las Vegas-area seat decided by 10,220 votes, the district's Black electorate is larger than the margin — meaning Black turnout is leverage in NV-03.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 10,220 votes
Nevada's 3rd Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
NV-03
NV-03 is 9.7% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~36,122 (372,388 total votes × 9
Susie Lee held NV-03 in 2024 by 10,220 votes. With a district that is 9.7% Black, Black turnout is a meaningful lever for accountability. Score pending.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Dina Titus
U.S. Representative — Nevada's 1st District (Las Vegas / Henderson) · Nevada
Even with a wider win margin, NV-01's Black electorate is still large enough to be a decisive bloc in a future close race — and it is a key part of the coalition that keeps this seat blue.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 24,235 votes
Nevada's 1st Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
NV-01
NV-01 is 10.0% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~31,154 (311,535 total votes × 1
Dina Titus held NV-01 in 2024. The district is 10.0% Black and Black voters are part of the coalition that keeps the seat. Score pending.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Jared Moskowitz
U.S. Representative — Florida's 23rd District (Broward / Palm Beach) · Florida
FL-23's Black electorate is far larger than the margin of victory — meaning Black turnout is real leverage for accountability in this seat.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won 2024 by 18,305 votes
Florida's 23rd Congressional District (2024)
Black Vote Share
FL-23
FL-23 is 12.2% Black (U.S. Census My Congressional District)
Black Votes Est.
Estimated Black votes
Estimated Black votes cast: ~45,667 (374,317 total votes × 1
Jared Moskowitz held FL-23 in 2024 by 18,305 votes. With a district that is 12.2% Black, Black turnout is a decisive lever. Score pending.
✓ Delivered
•Not scored yet
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Katie Hobbs
Governor of Arizona · Arizona
Without Black voter turnout, Hobbs loses to Kari Lake. The 17,117 vote margin is dwarfed by the estimated Black vote total.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 17,117 votes
Arizona Governor
Black Vote Share
Exit
Exit polls showed ~90% of Black Arizona voters chose Hobbs
Black Votes Est.
Approximately 50,000-60,000 Black
Approximately 50,000-60,000 Black voters in Maricopa County
Katie Hobbs won the closest Arizona governor's race in decades. Black voters in the Phoenix metro area delivered a margin that was multiples of her total victory margin.
✓ Delivered
•Repealed Arizona's 1864 abortion ban
•Medical debt forgiveness (ARP funds)
✗ Failed
•Affordable housing supply reform (veto)
Donna Deegan
Mayor of Jacksonville · Florida
First Democrat to win Jacksonville in 32 years. Without Black voter mobilization, Deegan loses to Daniel Davis.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won runoff by 9,054 votes
Jacksonville Mayor Runoff
Black Vote Share
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 30% Black — Black voters are the core Democr
Black Votes Est.
Estimated 90,000+ Black
Estimated 90,000+ Black voters turned out — nearly 10x the m
Donna Deegan became the first Democrat and first woman elected mayor of Jacksonville in over three decades. Black voter turnout in Duval County — 30% of the population — was the decisive factor in an election won by just 9,000 votes.
Josh Stein
Governor of North Carolina · North Carolina
No Democrat has won NC governor without massive Black turnout in Charlotte, the Triangle, and Greensboro. Black voters are the structural base of Stein's coalition.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 828,187 votes
North Carolina Governor
Black Vote Share
NC
NC is 22% Black. Exit polls showed 93%+ of Black voters chos
Black Votes Est.
Over 700,000 Black
Over 700,000 Black North Carolinians voted — the foundation
Josh Stein won North Carolina's governorship in 2024 against scandal-plagued Mark Robinson. While the margin was wide, Black voters in Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem are the indispensable foundation of every Democratic statewide win in North Carolina.
JB Pritzker
Governor of Illinois · Illinois
Without Black voter turnout on Chicago's South and West Sides, no Democrat wins statewide in Illinois. Period.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 854,424 votes
Illinois Governor
Black Vote Share
IL
IL is 14% Black. Chicago's Black community is the engine of
Black Votes Est.
Over 500,000 Black
Over 500,000 Black Chicagoans voted — the largest single vot
JB Pritzker is a billionaire governor whose political fortunes rest entirely on the Democratic coalition anchored by Black Chicago. The South and West Side wards deliver margins that no suburban or downstate Democrat can match.
✓ Delivered
•Signed criminal justice reform (SAFE-T Act)
✗ Failed
•Chicago school funding equity
Joe Hogsett
Mayor of Indianapolis · Indiana
In a deep red state, Democrats only hold Indianapolis because of Black voter turnout. Without it, Republicans take the mayor's office.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 31,097 votes
Indianapolis Mayor
Black Vote Share
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 29% Black — the largest minority group in Ma
Black Votes Est.
Estimated 60,000+ Black
Estimated 60,000+ Black voters in Marion County — the core o
Joe Hogsett is the Democratic mayor of the largest city in deep-red Indiana. Black voters in Marion County are the reason Indianapolis remains a Democratic stronghold. Without their turnout, this seat flips Republican.
Andrew Ginther
Mayor of Columbus, Ohio · Ohio
In a state trending hard Republican, Columbus remains blue because of its Black community. Ginther's margins come from Black neighborhoods on the East and South sides.
›Show the numbersHide the numbers
Margin of Victory
Won by 60,486 votes
Columbus Mayor
Black Vote Share
Columbus
Columbus is 29% Black — the largest minority group in Frankl
Black Votes Est.
Estimated 80,000+ Black
Estimated 80,000+ Black voters — the anchor of the Democrati
Andrew Ginther leads Ohio's largest city, where Black residents make up nearly a third of the population. In a state that's gone solidly Republican statewide, Columbus stays Democratic because of Black voter turnout.
✓ Delivered
•Andre Hill police reform
✗ Failed
No major failures documented.
Exit poll data sourced from Edison Research. Vote margins from official state election results. Sell-Out Scores and delivery assessments represent editorial opinion based on public voting records and donor data. Nothing on this page constitutes a legal claim.